Monday, March 2, 2009

4.8 million africans to lose jobs this year.

By Isaac Muiruri, http://investafrica.biz

Africa was believed to some extent insulated from the global crisis affecting many parts of the world but this is a short term relief and no cause for rejoicing. Africa is set to experience big economic challenges in the near future if the economic data being released is something to go by.

South Africa's third- largest sector still contracted by 2,2% last year -- its first decline since 1999, and the worst since 1992.
That was when the economy was last in a recession, defined as two quarters in a row of falling output. Interest rates and inflation are now falling, so there may be reason to speculate that the worst may be over for local retailers. But SA's hard-pressed consumers are unlikely to loosen their purse strings soon.
Job cuts are only now starting to kick in, with some analysts estimating that a quarter of a million jobs will be shed over the course of this year. That may look insignificant compared to what is happening in the world economy, which is sinking into its worst recession in eight decades.
But for SA it is alarming, especially given official plans to halve unemployment by 2014. The official jobless rate already crept up to 23,2% in the third quarter of last year, from 23,1% in the previous quarter. And things are definitely going to get worse before they get better. Miners have announced plans to retrench thousands of workers as lower commodity prices erode demand.
Manufacturing jobs are also being shed, and this is likely to gather momentum after output contracted at its steepest pace in a decade in December.
There is anecdotal evidence of retrenchments elsewhere as well, including in finance -- the economy's largest sector -- and construction, its fastest-growing.
Fear of job losses is the most potent restraint to spending that there is, and is likely to linger for months as economic growth slows to an expected 1,2% this year -- its slowest pace since 1998.
Banks are also making it much harder to access credit, both because of tougher regulations and a rise in nonperforming loans. All of this means that consumer spending is unlikely to rebound any time soon, after contracting for the first time in a decade late last year.
Massive job losses in Congo mines
More than 200,000 jobs have been lost in the Democratic Republic of Congo amid a collapse in mineral prices as a result of the global economic downturn.
There are fears the job losses could reach 300,000 by the end of this month.
Officials said the cost of producing minerals like cobalt and copper was greater than the price the commodities are fetching on world markets.
More than 40 firms processing minerals had shut by last month, mainly in the southern Katanga province.
BOTSWANA: Job losses as diamonds lose their lustre
Thousands of mining jobs in Botswana are in jeopardy as diamond and other mineral sales dwindle and companies begin retrenching to cut costs. The Botswana Mine Workers Union (BMWU) have been locked in talks with management in an attempt to avert looming retrenchments as diamond sales plummeted in response to the global financial crisis. Further declines in diamond sales are anticipated. Botswana has used its mineral wealth to enhance its development, unlike some of the continent's other resource-rich countries, where minerals have often become a source of conflict. "Diamond sales revenue is expected to decline by about 50 percent, as prices are estimated to decrease by 15 percent, while production is expected to reduce by 35 percent," the Minister of Finance and Development Planning, Baledzi Gaolathe, said in his recent 2009/10 budget address.
NAIROBI Kenya: Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta on Monday said that the Kenya’s economy grew by between two and 2.5 percent in 2008, according to provisional estimates.During the opening session of the public sector hearing for the budget process, he attributed the slow growth to the post-election crisis and the global economic meltdown.“Provisional estimates of our gross domestic output show that growth may have edged up by around two to 2.5 percent in 2008,” he said.“Other external developments such as droughts, exceptionally high oil prices, and the meltdown of the world economy associated with the global financial crisis, caused even more damage to the economy,” he added.The government had last year forecast that the growth would be anything between 4.5 and six percent for 2008, but was to review it this January to 3.5-4.0 percent.

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